Tour Championship Lays

value in these early plays.

Lay W Simpson @ 15
Lay A Scott @ 19
Lay D Johnson @ 20
Lay J Day @ 17.5
Lay B Snedeker @ 27
Lay G Ogilvy @ 27
Lay G Woodland @ 34
Lay B Watson @ 40
Lay K Bradley @ 36
Lay C Reavie @ 50
Lay B Haas @ 44
Lay C Howell @ 44
Lay Y E Yang @ 50
Lay M Wilson @ 80
Lay A Baddeley @ 70

So, laying half the field, with a potential return of 49%

BMW Result

+0.39 Pts

BMW Championship Update

Having spent the week testing my pricing model for Golf tournaments, i have come to the conclusion that the prices can be trusted far more pre event than in running. I am therefore going to put up picks every Tuesday or Wednesday and leave it at that.

By my reckoning (number crunching) this should produce a better return than any of the options explored previously (laying after each round, trading out before the last round etc etc)

We shall see, from the opening round in Chicago, Rose leads from Simpson with a lot of the fancied players like Scott and Johnston well back.

BMW Championship Pre R1

After a poor blog start, hoping for a bit of an upturn in fortunes.

Lay A Scott @ 17
Lay J Day @ 22
Lay D Johnston @ 18.5
Lay W Simpson @ 21
Lay P Mickelson @ 27
Lay B Snedeker @ 34
Lay J Furyk @ 32
Lay C Villegas @ 48
Lay R Fowler @ 46
Lay G Woodland @ 48
Lay B Watson @ 60
Lay E Els @ 70
Lay K Bradley @ 100

39% of book laid

KLM Dutch open Pre R3

not having much luck since starting this blog and the two players yesterday both played well to get right into contention. Of the two options open, (laying more and closing out) there is slightly more value to walk away with a small loss (again)

Backing Mcilroy, Dyson and Siem to ensure the book is -0.2 Pts (less those already laid who are out of it)

KLM Dutch Open Pre R2

It looks as if the players will go out in the usual order (Late R1 then early R2 for those in the 2nd half of the draw)
This will allow us a small window of time to place bets when all players are off the course and finished the round, so will put some lays up here at around 1030-1100 BST

Update 11am

There is a bit of value in backing Dyson back to level out on him, but paying for this by laying 2 further players.

Back S Dyson @ 6.4 (to bring book on him to 0)
Lay R McIlroy @ 11
Lay M Siem @ 22

Field Position +0.1 Pts
Dyson 0
Laid -0.9 Pts

R2 should finish mid morning on Saturday and Pre R3 bets will be placed then. As long as there are no rain delays we should be back on track for R3 finishing on time Saturday.

KLM Dutch Open Pre R1

The big 3 in the betting (McIlroy, Westwood and Kaymer) take a good % out of the book and its 9/4 shot that one of them wins. Therefore we will have a few plays early on

Lay S Dyson @ 40
Lay E Molinari @ 48
Lay J Donaldson @ 46
Lay N Colsaerts @ 80
Lay L Oosthuizen @ 65

update adding

Lay G F Castano @ 65
Lay J Luiten @ 65

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R4

By backing all the players under 300/1 who were originally laid, the book should result in a finishing position of -0.27 Pts which is the position i now find myself in.

It is better to do this than rely on the likes of Reavie, Kelly and Furyk to make us a good profit.

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R3

Lay E Els @ 60
Lay L Donald @ 20
Lay S Garcia @ 60
Lay J Day @ 25


Tidy up after R3 but could do with Schwartzel and Watney performing well in R3

Omega European Masters Pre R4

Back M Kaymer @ 20 to a zero position
Back A Noren @ 70 to a zero position

all other lays are effectively out of it, (bar a ridiculously low score)

Position -
The Field +0.32 Pts
Laid players not covered -0.68 Pts
Kaymer & Noren 0

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R2

Lay B Watson @ 55
Lay P Mickelson @ 80
Lay G Woodland @ 65
Lay K Stanley @ 95
Lay Y E Yang @ 28
Lay P Harrington @ 80
Lay K Bradley @ 40

Omega European Masters Pre R3

Lay M Kaymer @ 7.4
Lay J V Zyl @ 50

Omega European Masters Pre R2

Lay D Clarke @ 60
Lay N Dougherty @ 27