Omega European Masters Pre R1

After some thought regarding the liabilities of only laying I have come up with a strategy to lower the overall risk each week. The idea is to lay the players as we have, before play, before R1 and R2 but before R3 the plan is to tidy up the book by backing any player laid who is in contention. Only those players will be backed, not any "fancies".

There will be occasions that a player is in a very strong position after R3 and to trade out will mean taking a loss overall but it will be nowhere near the amount risked in previous weeks.

Also, having this policy makes it possible to trade both the US and European events in the same week, as before I was concerned with the volatility of risking two amounts running concurrently.

So, Pre R1 bets for the Omega European Masters are

Lay M Manassero @ 19.5
Lay A Noren @ 32
Lay G Coetzee @ 42
Lay M A Jimenez @ 42
Lay S Y Noh @ 42
Lay E Molinari @ 50

Pre R2 bets will be placed Thursday night (also note the PGA event starts on Friday, and ends on Monday)

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R1

Disappointing two week start to the blog, laying the winners both weeks, but its a long term strategy.

Current P/L -1.08 Pts

Lay A Scott @ 21
Lay D Johnson @ 23
Lay W Simpson @ 42
Lay V Singh @ 40
Lay R Fowler @ 46
Lay B Snedeker @ 48


(Note R1 is Friday this week, with a Monday finish)

The Barclays Pre R3

With the event reduced to 54 holes, it now looks as if the event is between at the most those 17 players from -8 upwards but realistically the 8 players in double figures under par.

Of those there is a bit of value in one play and doing so gives us a position of -0.63 Pts if any those laid were to win, and a 0.37 Profit the field.

Lay J Rose @ 28

The Barclays Pre R2

It's quite difficult to price up an event between play when a lot of the players have still to complete a round but the following players are value at their current odds.

Lay L Donald @ 32
Lay P Harrington @ 44
Lay A Baddeley @ 50
Lay H Mahan @ 40

Current Risk = 0.67 Pts, Potential Profit 0.33 Pts

The Barclays Pre R1

Current P/L = -0.45 Pts

Pre R1 bets below, additional players will be added on Friday morning.

Lay A Scott @ 18.5
Lay J Day @ 28
Lay P Mickelson @ 32
Lay W Simpson @ 34
Lay R Fowler @ 40
Lay D Johnson @ 42
Lay S Garcia @ 50
Lay C Howell @ 46

Current Risk 0.76 Pts, Potential Profit 0.24 Pts

Wyndham Championships Pre R4

Unfortunately a birdie blitz from Simpson has put us in the position it is best to lay the following and accept probable defeat at a much reduced risk than to let these players play on.

E Els @ 34
D Summerhays @ 40
R Goosen @ 34
T Gainey @ 6.8

(current risk 0.45 Pts, Potential Profit 0.55 Pts)

Playing for us tomorrow, Mallinger T3, Horschel and Bohn T6 and most of the pack chasing from -9

Wyndham Championships Pre R3

Lay C Howell @ 46

Only one lay, for R3. The only serious contenders laid at the moment are Simpson and Appleby.

Current Risk 0.65 Pts, Potential Profit 0.35 Pts

Wyndham Championship Pre R2

C Pettersson 24
J Dufner 34
S Appleby 40
C Reavie 46
J Quinney 38


(Current Risk 0.67 Pts, Potential Profit 0.33 Pts)

Wyndham Championships

Laying players I feel are too short in the market. All advices will be based on the lay risking 1% of a betting bank. No monetary figures will be mentioned here, the advice, if followed, is to risk 1% of your available funds per event. That risk will lower with each player added to the book and at the bottom of each post will show the current risk and potential profit. Once a lay is placed on a player there will be no further bets on that player so the liability on him winning will decrease with each further trade placed.

Pre R1

W Simpson @ 22
B Snedeker @ 26
K Stanley @ 46
B De Jonge @ 36
L Glover @ 48
A Kim @ 44
T Immelman @ 48


(Current Risk 0.8 Pts, Potential Profit 0.2 Pts)