Tour Championship Lays

value in these early plays.

Lay W Simpson @ 15
Lay A Scott @ 19
Lay D Johnson @ 20
Lay J Day @ 17.5
Lay B Snedeker @ 27
Lay G Ogilvy @ 27
Lay G Woodland @ 34
Lay B Watson @ 40
Lay K Bradley @ 36
Lay C Reavie @ 50
Lay B Haas @ 44
Lay C Howell @ 44
Lay Y E Yang @ 50
Lay M Wilson @ 80
Lay A Baddeley @ 70

So, laying half the field, with a potential return of 49%

BMW Result

+0.39 Pts

BMW Championship Update

Having spent the week testing my pricing model for Golf tournaments, i have come to the conclusion that the prices can be trusted far more pre event than in running. I am therefore going to put up picks every Tuesday or Wednesday and leave it at that.

By my reckoning (number crunching) this should produce a better return than any of the options explored previously (laying after each round, trading out before the last round etc etc)

We shall see, from the opening round in Chicago, Rose leads from Simpson with a lot of the fancied players like Scott and Johnston well back.

BMW Championship Pre R1

After a poor blog start, hoping for a bit of an upturn in fortunes.

Lay A Scott @ 17
Lay J Day @ 22
Lay D Johnston @ 18.5
Lay W Simpson @ 21
Lay P Mickelson @ 27
Lay B Snedeker @ 34
Lay J Furyk @ 32
Lay C Villegas @ 48
Lay R Fowler @ 46
Lay G Woodland @ 48
Lay B Watson @ 60
Lay E Els @ 70
Lay K Bradley @ 100

39% of book laid

KLM Dutch open Pre R3

not having much luck since starting this blog and the two players yesterday both played well to get right into contention. Of the two options open, (laying more and closing out) there is slightly more value to walk away with a small loss (again)

Backing Mcilroy, Dyson and Siem to ensure the book is -0.2 Pts (less those already laid who are out of it)

KLM Dutch Open Pre R2

It looks as if the players will go out in the usual order (Late R1 then early R2 for those in the 2nd half of the draw)
This will allow us a small window of time to place bets when all players are off the course and finished the round, so will put some lays up here at around 1030-1100 BST

Update 11am

There is a bit of value in backing Dyson back to level out on him, but paying for this by laying 2 further players.

Back S Dyson @ 6.4 (to bring book on him to 0)
Lay R McIlroy @ 11
Lay M Siem @ 22

Field Position +0.1 Pts
Dyson 0
Laid -0.9 Pts

R2 should finish mid morning on Saturday and Pre R3 bets will be placed then. As long as there are no rain delays we should be back on track for R3 finishing on time Saturday.

KLM Dutch Open Pre R1

The big 3 in the betting (McIlroy, Westwood and Kaymer) take a good % out of the book and its 9/4 shot that one of them wins. Therefore we will have a few plays early on

Lay S Dyson @ 40
Lay E Molinari @ 48
Lay J Donaldson @ 46
Lay N Colsaerts @ 80
Lay L Oosthuizen @ 65

update adding

Lay G F Castano @ 65
Lay J Luiten @ 65

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R4

By backing all the players under 300/1 who were originally laid, the book should result in a finishing position of -0.27 Pts which is the position i now find myself in.

It is better to do this than rely on the likes of Reavie, Kelly and Furyk to make us a good profit.

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R3

Lay E Els @ 60
Lay L Donald @ 20
Lay S Garcia @ 60
Lay J Day @ 25


Tidy up after R3 but could do with Schwartzel and Watney performing well in R3

Omega European Masters Pre R4

Back M Kaymer @ 20 to a zero position
Back A Noren @ 70 to a zero position

all other lays are effectively out of it, (bar a ridiculously low score)

Position -
The Field +0.32 Pts
Laid players not covered -0.68 Pts
Kaymer & Noren 0

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R2

Lay B Watson @ 55
Lay P Mickelson @ 80
Lay G Woodland @ 65
Lay K Stanley @ 95
Lay Y E Yang @ 28
Lay P Harrington @ 80
Lay K Bradley @ 40

Omega European Masters Pre R3

Lay M Kaymer @ 7.4
Lay J V Zyl @ 50

Omega European Masters Pre R2

Lay D Clarke @ 60
Lay N Dougherty @ 27

Omega European Masters Pre R1

After some thought regarding the liabilities of only laying I have come up with a strategy to lower the overall risk each week. The idea is to lay the players as we have, before play, before R1 and R2 but before R3 the plan is to tidy up the book by backing any player laid who is in contention. Only those players will be backed, not any "fancies".

There will be occasions that a player is in a very strong position after R3 and to trade out will mean taking a loss overall but it will be nowhere near the amount risked in previous weeks.

Also, having this policy makes it possible to trade both the US and European events in the same week, as before I was concerned with the volatility of risking two amounts running concurrently.

So, Pre R1 bets for the Omega European Masters are

Lay M Manassero @ 19.5
Lay A Noren @ 32
Lay G Coetzee @ 42
Lay M A Jimenez @ 42
Lay S Y Noh @ 42
Lay E Molinari @ 50

Pre R2 bets will be placed Thursday night (also note the PGA event starts on Friday, and ends on Monday)

Deutsche Bank Championship Pre R1

Disappointing two week start to the blog, laying the winners both weeks, but its a long term strategy.

Current P/L -1.08 Pts

Lay A Scott @ 21
Lay D Johnson @ 23
Lay W Simpson @ 42
Lay V Singh @ 40
Lay R Fowler @ 46
Lay B Snedeker @ 48


(Note R1 is Friday this week, with a Monday finish)

The Barclays Pre R3

With the event reduced to 54 holes, it now looks as if the event is between at the most those 17 players from -8 upwards but realistically the 8 players in double figures under par.

Of those there is a bit of value in one play and doing so gives us a position of -0.63 Pts if any those laid were to win, and a 0.37 Profit the field.

Lay J Rose @ 28

The Barclays Pre R2

It's quite difficult to price up an event between play when a lot of the players have still to complete a round but the following players are value at their current odds.

Lay L Donald @ 32
Lay P Harrington @ 44
Lay A Baddeley @ 50
Lay H Mahan @ 40

Current Risk = 0.67 Pts, Potential Profit 0.33 Pts

The Barclays Pre R1

Current P/L = -0.45 Pts

Pre R1 bets below, additional players will be added on Friday morning.

Lay A Scott @ 18.5
Lay J Day @ 28
Lay P Mickelson @ 32
Lay W Simpson @ 34
Lay R Fowler @ 40
Lay D Johnson @ 42
Lay S Garcia @ 50
Lay C Howell @ 46

Current Risk 0.76 Pts, Potential Profit 0.24 Pts

Wyndham Championships Pre R4

Unfortunately a birdie blitz from Simpson has put us in the position it is best to lay the following and accept probable defeat at a much reduced risk than to let these players play on.

E Els @ 34
D Summerhays @ 40
R Goosen @ 34
T Gainey @ 6.8

(current risk 0.45 Pts, Potential Profit 0.55 Pts)

Playing for us tomorrow, Mallinger T3, Horschel and Bohn T6 and most of the pack chasing from -9

Wyndham Championships Pre R3

Lay C Howell @ 46

Only one lay, for R3. The only serious contenders laid at the moment are Simpson and Appleby.

Current Risk 0.65 Pts, Potential Profit 0.35 Pts

Wyndham Championship Pre R2

C Pettersson 24
J Dufner 34
S Appleby 40
C Reavie 46
J Quinney 38


(Current Risk 0.67 Pts, Potential Profit 0.33 Pts)

Wyndham Championships

Laying players I feel are too short in the market. All advices will be based on the lay risking 1% of a betting bank. No monetary figures will be mentioned here, the advice, if followed, is to risk 1% of your available funds per event. That risk will lower with each player added to the book and at the bottom of each post will show the current risk and potential profit. Once a lay is placed on a player there will be no further bets on that player so the liability on him winning will decrease with each further trade placed.

Pre R1

W Simpson @ 22
B Snedeker @ 26
K Stanley @ 46
B De Jonge @ 36
L Glover @ 48
A Kim @ 44
T Immelman @ 48


(Current Risk 0.8 Pts, Potential Profit 0.2 Pts)